market pricing increasingly favoring a hike.
For BTC and crypto, I’m watching four things:
• Fed decision — 25bp hike vs surprise hold
• Powell — hawkish or dovish forward guidance
• 10Y Treasury yield — especially whether 5% holds
• DXY + BTC reaction — confirmation matters more than the first candle
A hike that is already priced in does not automatically mean bearish markets. The bigger risk is a hawkish Fed signaling that this is the beginning of a broader tightening cycle.
My view: don’t trade the headline alone. Watch yields, dollar liquidity and BTC’s reaction after Powell speaks
$AKE
$POWER
$NFP