Rate Hike Nearly Confirmed: Hawkish Tone Grips Fed Committee, 93% Odds on 25bp Move 🚀
Here are the real statements found in reporting, organized by member:
Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed President) — Most consistently hawkish
Headline: "Now Is the Time to Act," Says Hammack
Hammack dissented at the last FOMC meeting in favor of a hike, arguing that the Fed likely needs a sequence of rate increases rather than a single move, and has recently said that "now is the time to act." She doesn't seem concerned that higher interest rates will impede the economy, noting one 25-basis-point move probably doesn't do a whole lot for the economy.
John Williams (NY Fed President) — Centrist, leaning hawkish
Headline: Williams: Rising Yields Reflect Economic Strength
Williams has claimed that rising bond yields simply "reflect the strength of the economy."
Lisa Cook (Fed Governor) — Shifting from dovish
Headline: Cook Opens Door to Supporting a Hike
Cook, a more dovish member, seems to be coming around to the idea of rate hikes, telling reporters, "I would support an increase if it becomes necessary to bring inflation down. It may not."
Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) & Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) — Hawkish dissenters
Headline: Three Regional Presidents Break Ranks in July
Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike at the July meeting; the Hammack and Logan dissents were expected, while Kashkari's was seen as a mild hawkish surprise.
Chair Kevin Warsh — Mixed signals
Headline: Warsh Leans Dovish in Press Conference, Despite Hawkish Tone Elsewhere
In his July press conference Warsh leaned slightly dovish, repeatedly emphasizing that financial conditions — proxied by the Treasury yield curve — have tightened since the last meeting.
#FedHikeOddsRiseTo89%
Here are the real statements found in reporting, organized by member:
Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed President) — Most consistently hawkish
Headline: "Now Is the Time to Act," Says Hammack
Hammack dissented at the last FOMC meeting in favor of a hike, arguing that the Fed likely needs a sequence of rate increases rather than a single move, and has recently said that "now is the time to act." She doesn't seem concerned that higher interest rates will impede the economy, noting one 25-basis-point move probably doesn't do a whole lot for the economy.
John Williams (NY Fed President) — Centrist, leaning hawkish
Headline: Williams: Rising Yields Reflect Economic Strength
Williams has claimed that rising bond yields simply "reflect the strength of the economy."
Lisa Cook (Fed Governor) — Shifting from dovish
Headline: Cook Opens Door to Supporting a Hike
Cook, a more dovish member, seems to be coming around to the idea of rate hikes, telling reporters, "I would support an increase if it becomes necessary to bring inflation down. It may not."
Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) & Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) — Hawkish dissenters
Headline: Three Regional Presidents Break Ranks in July
Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented in favor of a 25 basis point hike at the July meeting; the Hammack and Logan dissents were expected, while Kashkari's was seen as a mild hawkish surprise.
Chair Kevin Warsh — Mixed signals
Headline: Warsh Leans Dovish in Press Conference, Despite Hawkish Tone Elsewhere
In his July press conference Warsh leaned slightly dovish, repeatedly emphasizing that financial conditions — proxied by the Treasury yield curve — have tightened since the last meeting.
#FedHikeOddsRiseTo89%