No, CLARITY can't beat a Fed hike for Bitcoin right now. The Fed hike is almost certain, while CLARITY is still a long shot.
The Fed hike odds are near 90% for September, with two hikes now priced for 2026. Kevin Warsh made it clear at Jackson Hole that inflation "isn't slowing" and the Fed has "work to do." The 10-year Treasury is pushing toward 5%, crushing risk assets.
CLARITY odds jumped to 32% on Polymarket after Trump agreed to ethics concessions, but that's still a coin flip at best. The Senate vote on September 15 needs 60 votes, and Republicans hold 53. Seven Democrats must cross the aisle. Galaxy still sees only a 10% chance of the bill becoming law in 2026.
The hierarchy matters. A Fed hike is a guaranteed macro headwind that hits all risk assets. CLARITY is a possible regulatory catalyst that only helps crypto. Right now, the Fed is the dominant force. Bitcoin is holding $77K despite 86% hike odds, which shows underlying demand, but a hawkish Fed caps the upside.
If CLARITY passes, it could trigger a major rally. But the Fed decides the near-term direction. The vote is Tuesday. Watch the cloture result first, then the FOMC.
The Fed hike odds are near 90% for September, with two hikes now priced for 2026. Kevin Warsh made it clear at Jackson Hole that inflation "isn't slowing" and the Fed has "work to do." The 10-year Treasury is pushing toward 5%, crushing risk assets.
CLARITY odds jumped to 32% on Polymarket after Trump agreed to ethics concessions, but that's still a coin flip at best. The Senate vote on September 15 needs 60 votes, and Republicans hold 53. Seven Democrats must cross the aisle. Galaxy still sees only a 10% chance of the bill becoming law in 2026.
The hierarchy matters. A Fed hike is a guaranteed macro headwind that hits all risk assets. CLARITY is a possible regulatory catalyst that only helps crypto. Right now, the Fed is the dominant force. Bitcoin is holding $77K despite 86% hike odds, which shows underlying demand, but a hawkish Fed caps the upside.
If CLARITY passes, it could trigger a major rally. But the Fed decides the near-term direction. The vote is Tuesday. Watch the cloture result first, then the FOMC.