The Clarity Act just got its best political tailwind in months, but the Fed is still the bigger hammer. Trump's concession on ethics provisions has lifted the odds of the bill becoming law to around 32% on prediction markets, up from the low teens last week. A cloture vote is scheduled for Tuesday, and sponsors say they expect to clear the 60-vote threshold needed to advance debate. That is the bullish setup for crypto. If Clarity passes, it would create the first clear U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets, splitting oversight between the SEC and CFTC and potentially unlocking more institutional participation. Bernstein notes that any positive surprise is not priced in, with Bitcoin hovering near 77,700 to 80,000 and XRP up about 4% on the news. The problem is timing. The Fed meets on September 16, one day after the Senate vote, and markets are pricing a high probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. A hike would tighten liquidity, strengthen the dollar and pressure risk assets just as Clarity hopes to lift sentiment. Bitcoin has already been rejected multiple times at 82,000, and a hawkish Fed could push it back toward 77,300 and then 75,500 if Clarity fails or disappoints. Traders should watch Tuesday's cloture outcome, Wednesday's Fed decision and whether BTC can close above 82,283 before the Fed speaks. If Clarity advances and the Fed pauses or signals a dovish path, 80,000 to 82,000 could flip from resistance to support. If Clarity stalls and the Fed hikes, the macro headwind may dominate, regardless of the regulatory progress. $BTC