#CPIWatch | Will CPI Trigger a Rate Hike?
The US macro picture is getting interesting. August Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162K, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%. That shows the labor market is still relatively resilient, but it is not showing an explosive pace of growth.
At the same time, the latest available CPI data before the August release showed July inflation at 3.4% YoY, with core CPI at 2.5% YoY. The August CPI release was scheduled for September 11, making inflation the key catalyst for the Fed’s next decision.
My view: I’m cautiously bullish, but I don’t expect the Fed to rush into a rate hike simply because of one strong jobs report. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, markets could turn defensive and risk assets may face pressure. A softer CPI print, however, could strengthen expectations for easier policy and support stocks, gold and crypto.
For now, I’m watching CPI + labor data + Fed communication together rather than reacting to a single number.
Bullish or bearish? What’s your view? 👇
The US macro picture is getting interesting. August Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162K, while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%. That shows the labor market is still relatively resilient, but it is not showing an explosive pace of growth.
At the same time, the latest available CPI data before the August release showed July inflation at 3.4% YoY, with core CPI at 2.5% YoY. The August CPI release was scheduled for September 11, making inflation the key catalyst for the Fed’s next decision.
My view: I’m cautiously bullish, but I don’t expect the Fed to rush into a rate hike simply because of one strong jobs report. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, markets could turn defensive and risk assets may face pressure. A softer CPI print, however, could strengthen expectations for easier policy and support stocks, gold and crypto.
For now, I’m watching CPI + labor data + Fed communication together rather than reacting to a single number.
Bullish or bearish? What’s your view? 👇
