CPI will not trigger a rate hike this cycle.

The market is pricing in 86.9M views because it’s scared of noise, not data.
I don’t trade expectations. I trade what the price does after the print.
If CPI comes in at or below forecast, the rally in risk assets is already baked in.
I’m watching the 10Y yield at 4.35% break above that and I reconsider.

I’m not positioned. I’m waiting for the candle close after the release.

What would prove me wrong? CPI above 3.8% and the Fed openly signals June hike.

What’s your take? #CPIWatch

Not financial advice. My levels, my risk.