I keep coming back to the same annoyance every CPI week: everyone treats one monthly number like it's supposed to settle something, when honestly it was never built for that job. There's seasonal noise, sampling weirdness, one or two categories doing all the work — this time it was services, once you strip out energy and shelter. But the Fed has a meeting on the calendar whether the data is clean or not, so for about two days the market just... decides to believe the number means more than it probably does.

So, what happened: core CPI came in at 0.3% for the month, a tenth hotter than expected, and almost immediately rate-hike odds jumped to somewhere around 85%. I don't think that's actually surprising if you were paying attention — futures were already near 73% after the PPI number two days before. This didn't change anyone's mind. It just gave people permission to say out loud what they already suspected.

I'm hesitant to sound too sure about any of this, though. Fed officials themselves were saying the call looked "finely balanced" going in, and honestly their reaction to any single print lately feels more improvised than rule-based. A quarter-point hike next week wouldn't surprise me. Neither would a hold — if there's enough disagreement in the room, that's plausible too.

Honestly, the people who really need to care are the ones with floating-rate debt or a bond desk repricing risk this week. Everyone else watching this like it's a big reveal is probably reading more into it than it deserves.
#CPIWatch
How fast do you think perp funding flips if today’s number comes in hot?
$MET

$BTC

$牛来