Markets Now Treat a September Hike as the Base Case Fed funds futures have shifted from a live debate to a hike-led path. As of September 10 the strip priced a 69.7% chance of a 25 bp move at the September 16 meeting, taking the implied rate to 3.804% from a 3.63% effective rate. The October 28 meeting added another 34.3% chance of a further hike, lifting the implied rate to 3.890%. By December the curve was already pointing to about 1.7 hikes and an implied rate near 4.05%. That was before today’s CPI. Core rose 0.3% month-over-month versus a 0.2% consensus. After the print, futures and FedWatch moved the September hike odds into the mid-80s to around 90%, with two hikes more fully priced by year-end. The nuance is the starting point. Policy has been on hold near 3.75% all year. The market is no longer pricing a one-and-done debate. It is pricing a tightening path into 2027, with implied overnight rates rising toward the mid-4s. A 70% hike odds print was the warning. The hot core reading is what turned it into the working assumption. #BTC Price Analysis# #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# $BTC $XRP