#CPIWatch
🚹 THE MARKET IS NOT READY FOR TODAY’S CPI REPORT

August inflation data drops TODAY at 8:30 AM ET.

Yesterday’s PPI showed producer prices rose 0.4% in August, up from 0.1% in July.

Now, comes the consumer side:

‱ Headline CPI: +0.4% MoM, +3.4% YoY
‱ Core CPI: +0.2% MoM, +2.4% YoY

Hot PPI doesn’t guarantee hot CPI.

But an upside surprise would mean back-to-back inflation warnings, with markets pricing a 51% chance of a Fed hike next week .

Hot CPI = yields and the dollar jump, while tech likely gets hit.

Cool CPI = rate-hike fears fade, and risk assets get room to rally.

Sticky core CPI = the market stays trapped between weak growth and persistent inflation.

With the Fed meeting next week, one surprise could reshape expectations for September’s decision.

Limitless traders currently see just a 10% chance CPI comes in above 0.4%.

$MET

$牛杄 =0.155

$LAB