CPI will not trigger a rate hike this cycle.
The market has priced in sticky inflation for 18 months. Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, but wage growth is cooling. The Fed’s real concern isn’t the number it’s whether the number changes their narrative. Right now, it doesn’t.
I’m watching the 10Y treasury yield at 4.35%. If it breaks 4.50% on CPI release, I’ll consider shorting treasuries. If it holds below 4.30%, I stay flat. No entry until price confirms.
What would prove me wrong? A CPI print above 3.8% YoY and a Fed chair who says “more tightening is likely.”
What’s your take? #CPIWatch
Not financial advice. My levels, my risk.
The market has priced in sticky inflation for 18 months. Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, but wage growth is cooling. The Fed’s real concern isn’t the number it’s whether the number changes their narrative. Right now, it doesn’t.
I’m watching the 10Y treasury yield at 4.35%. If it breaks 4.50% on CPI release, I’ll consider shorting treasuries. If it holds below 4.30%, I stay flat. No entry until price confirms.
What would prove me wrong? A CPI print above 3.8% YoY and a Fed chair who says “more tightening is likely.”
What’s your take? #CPIWatch
Not financial advice. My levels, my risk.