The jobs report did not settle the Fed debate. It simply gave policymakers more room to act.

August payrolls rose by 162,000 while unemployment remained at 4.1%, showing that the labour market is still resilient. Now CPI becomes the decisive test.

A higher headline CPI alone may not trigger a rate hike, especially if energy prices are causing most of the increase. The stronger signal will come from core inflation and service prices.
If headline inflation rises while core inflation cools, the Fed can still justify holding rates. But if both remain hot, a 25 bps hike becomes much more likely.

That outcome would be bearish for growth stocks because higher yields reduce the value of future earnings. Gold could also fall during the first reaction if the dollar strengthens, but persistent inflation may bring buyers back once the initial volatility settles.
The setup is clear: hot core CPI would be bearish for growth stocks, while gold could turn bullish after the first market reaction.

I would not chase the opening candle. The details will decide whether the first move lasts.
#CPIWatch

What will the Fed do next?