Maybe you looked CPI for the Fed, but I’m looking it for #bitcoin
The setup has changed pretty quickly
NFP came in at 162K vs 56K expected. Then PPI came in hot at 5.4% YoY. Now the market is already pricing a much higher chance of a September Fed hike
It will impact crypto because BTC doesn’t trade in isolation. When the market starts pricing tighter US liquidity, the dollar and Treasury yields usually become a bigger problem for risk assets
But here’s where I think people are getting too bearish
A lot of the hawkish expectation is already in the price
For me, the important number is core CPI, not just #CPIWatch
If core CPI prints around 0.2% MoM, the Fed may still hike, but the market could struggle to price much more tightening from here
If we get 0.3% or higher, that changes the story. I’d expect yields and the dollar to push higher, with BTC potentially coming under another wave of selling
But if core CPI surprises at 0.1%, I’d be watching BTC closely for a relief move. That could force the market to unwind some of the recent hawkish positioning
So my view going into CPI:
Short term: BTC will remain bearish and out lower targets of 71K will remain valid
The real trade is not “CPI up = BTC down.”
It’s CPI → Fed expectations → liquidity → BTC
What are you expecting: hot CPI or a surprise cooldown?
The setup has changed pretty quickly
NFP came in at 162K vs 56K expected. Then PPI came in hot at 5.4% YoY. Now the market is already pricing a much higher chance of a September Fed hike
It will impact crypto because BTC doesn’t trade in isolation. When the market starts pricing tighter US liquidity, the dollar and Treasury yields usually become a bigger problem for risk assets
But here’s where I think people are getting too bearish
A lot of the hawkish expectation is already in the price
For me, the important number is core CPI, not just #CPIWatch
If core CPI prints around 0.2% MoM, the Fed may still hike, but the market could struggle to price much more tightening from here
If we get 0.3% or higher, that changes the story. I’d expect yields and the dollar to push higher, with BTC potentially coming under another wave of selling
But if core CPI surprises at 0.1%, I’d be watching BTC closely for a relief move. That could force the market to unwind some of the recent hawkish positioning
So my view going into CPI:
Short term: BTC will remain bearish and out lower targets of 71K will remain valid
The real trade is not “CPI up = BTC down.”
It’s CPI → Fed expectations → liquidity → BTC
What are you expecting: hot CPI or a surprise cooldown?
