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SpaceX is facing a key challenge that could determine whether its valuation rises significantly in the future: making Starship truly reusable. Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak said SpaceX’s investment case depends heavily on Starship completing around 20 to 50 flights with low-cost, fast turnaround and redeployment. He initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $220 price target, pointing to potential growth from Starlink, xAI, and the company’s expanding position in the space industry. SpaceX shares have recently rebounded from an IPO low, reaching around $154.15, compared with an intraday low of $104.83 on August 3 and an all-time high of $225.64 shortly after its June listing. However, the company’s second-quarter results received a mixed reaction, with a large reported loss and $18.4 billion in capital expenditures, far above analysts’ expectations of roughly $6 billion. Despite these concerns, about 80% of sell-side analysts reportedly rate SpaceX as Buy or Strong Buy, while investors are closely watching Starlink user growth, xAI, the Colossus supercomputing cluster, and Starship’s progress. Overall, the outlook remains broadly positive, but SpaceX’s ability to prove Starship’s reliable and economical reusability could be the major factor supporting a much higher valuation.
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