🚨 Bitcoin (BTC) Market Update 📊🚀
🔥 August Monthly Candle: Bitcoin recorded an extremely strong ~125% monthly return, a move that historically has appeared near major market bottoms and before bull-market phases.
⏳ Cycle Comparison: The current bottom-formation period (~38 weeks) is very similar to the 2019 cycle (~37 weeks), including the retest of important weekly lows.
🎯 Bear Market Probability: Based on the monthly strength and weekly structure, the estimated probability that the bear market has ended has increased from 50% → 75%. A decisive break above the previous major weekly high could push confidence to 90%+.
📈 Short-Term Outlook: The lower-timeframe breakout has completed its retest and price is moving higher. Bitcoin is currently trading within the Volume Profile VAL–VAH range. A breakout from either side could trigger a strong move.
⚠️ Trading Risk: Because the monthly candle is exceptionally strong, shorting too early can be risky. Wait for proper confirmation, manage risk, and consider moving existing trades to break-even when appropriate.
🚀 Bottom Line: The evidence is increasingly bullish, but the next major confirmation is a break above the previous weekly high.
$BTC
🔥 August Monthly Candle: Bitcoin recorded an extremely strong ~125% monthly return, a move that historically has appeared near major market bottoms and before bull-market phases.
⏳ Cycle Comparison: The current bottom-formation period (~38 weeks) is very similar to the 2019 cycle (~37 weeks), including the retest of important weekly lows.
🎯 Bear Market Probability: Based on the monthly strength and weekly structure, the estimated probability that the bear market has ended has increased from 50% → 75%. A decisive break above the previous major weekly high could push confidence to 90%+.
📈 Short-Term Outlook: The lower-timeframe breakout has completed its retest and price is moving higher. Bitcoin is currently trading within the Volume Profile VAL–VAH range. A breakout from either side could trigger a strong move.
⚠️ Trading Risk: Because the monthly candle is exceptionally strong, shorting too early can be risky. Wait for proper confirmation, manage risk, and consider moving existing trades to break-even when appropriate.
🚀 Bottom Line: The evidence is increasingly bullish, but the next major confirmation is a break above the previous weekly high.
$BTC
