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According to a report by Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs has cautioned that wars in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine have further tightened global refining capacity,

and has raised its forecast for the 2027 diesel refining margin by more than double. In its report, analysts said that an increased number of attacks on refineries in the Middle East and Russia has further restricted global refining capacity that was already tight.

product oil margins have risen to new highs, and diesel will become the key driver of this round of energy price increases.

Goldman’s forecast has effectively doubled: refining a barrel of diesel in the United States could generate a profit of up to $63 per barrel.

The so-called refining margin refers to the difference refiners earn per barrel of product oil, after subtracting the crude oil cost. This is the most direct indicator of refinery industry conditions.

Goldman estimates that in 2027, the average gross margin from refining diesel from Brent crude in the United States will be $63

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