Everyone is pricing a September Fed hike like it’s guaranteed. The data says otherwise. Markets got spooked after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, but CME FedWatch currently puts the probability of a September rate hike at around 58% nowhere near the 90%+ level typically associated with a near-certainty. Warsh highlighted persistent inflation concerns, pointing to PCE inflation at 3.7% versus the Fed’s 2% target, while noting that inflation remains more concerning than the labor market. That triggered a sharp reaction. $BTC fell roughly 3% below $77K on Friday, while gold declined and the dollar and Treasury yields moved higher. But several market observers remain skeptical that a September hike is actually coming. Even if the Fed does hike, some argue the move could be aimed more at stabilizing Treasury markets and anchoring longer-term yields than aggressively tightening financial conditions. For crypto, that distinction matters. Bitcoin is coming off a roughly 23% August rally, while gold is up around 10%. If September hike expectations fail to rise materially from current levels, the macro pressure on risk assets could be much smaller than social media suggests. 58% is elevated, but it’s not a done deal. Could the market be overpricing the hawkish Fed narrative? #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Altcoin Season#