QCP Capital reported that from an underlying market structure perspective, BTC's current rally from $63,500 to above $80,000 is backed by solid spot support. The rally from $63,500 has been supported by ~$2.8B in spot ETF inflows, while BTC-denominated futures open interest fell from ~646k BTC in mid-August to ~588k BTC alongside subdued funding rates, indicating that short covering and spot buying—rather than aggressive leveraged longs—led the move.

Macro conditions remain complex: July Core PCE held at 3.3% YoY with markets pricing a ~35% probability of a 25bp September hike, while the US Treasury's plan to double long-end liquidity buybacks to at least $4B per operation from Sept 9 and strong Nvidia earnings have buoyed risk sentiment.