$BTC is green, but the broader tape is not confirming a simple risk-on story. Binance has BTC at $79,299.88, up 1.192% in 24 hours, while total crypto market cap is down 1.48% and reported volume is up 6.89%. That split makes the SEC custody-rule headline and the $6.4B options expiry more useful as context than as a directional answer.

My decoder: price acceptance matters more than the headline. A 4h close below today's $77,632.58 low would invalidate the constructive read. Through Friday's options settlement, my reference target is $80,520, the intraday high, but only if price accepts above it. The rule: headline strength needs a close, not a wick.

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