$BTC rejected right at 81k by the 50-week ma, but crypto quants bull score just jumped from 30 to 80
price hit 81,257 tuesday then pulled back to sit around 78,800-78,900, essentially flat over 24h. the rejection point lines up almost exactly with the 50-week moving average, which is capping the rally for now
but the on-chain read is a lot more bullish than the price action alone suggests. crypto quant says btc's entered early bull market stages after a 24% rally since aug 17, and their bull score jumped from 30 to 80 in just a week, with 8 of 10 underlying metrics now flashing bullish. spot demand is also growing at its fastest monthly pace since late december
context helping this along: oil dropped 5.3% to $80.50 (weakest since early august), which is helping bond prices, 10-year yield down 8bps to 4.623%. lower yields + lower oil is generally a supportive backdrop for risk assets
worth remembering the btig comparison too, bitcoin did something almost identical in january 2023, a ~20% three-day surge that broke a downtrend, faded, then found support at the 200-day ma. so theres a real historical parallel for "strong breakout, stall at resistance, retest lower ma" as the next likely sequence rather than straight continuation
with jackson hole this week (warsh speaks friday) and $6.44b in btc options expiring, feels like the next few days will actually determine whether the bull score conviction shows up in price or the 50w ma rejection turns into something deeper.
price hit 81,257 tuesday then pulled back to sit around 78,800-78,900, essentially flat over 24h. the rejection point lines up almost exactly with the 50-week moving average, which is capping the rally for now
but the on-chain read is a lot more bullish than the price action alone suggests. crypto quant says btc's entered early bull market stages after a 24% rally since aug 17, and their bull score jumped from 30 to 80 in just a week, with 8 of 10 underlying metrics now flashing bullish. spot demand is also growing at its fastest monthly pace since late december
context helping this along: oil dropped 5.3% to $80.50 (weakest since early august), which is helping bond prices, 10-year yield down 8bps to 4.623%. lower yields + lower oil is generally a supportive backdrop for risk assets
worth remembering the btig comparison too, bitcoin did something almost identical in january 2023, a ~20% three-day surge that broke a downtrend, faded, then found support at the 200-day ma. so theres a real historical parallel for "strong breakout, stall at resistance, retest lower ma" as the next likely sequence rather than straight continuation
with jackson hole this week (warsh speaks friday) and $6.44b in btc options expiring, feels like the next few days will actually determine whether the bull score conviction shows up in price or the 50w ma rejection turns into something deeper.
