BTC (~$80k, down ~37% from $126k ATH):Bull case: Fixed 21M supply + institutional demand (ETFs hold ~1.25M BTC, ~$2B recent weekly inflows) creates scarcity. Corporate treasuries, potential strategic reserves, and Trump-backed regulation (CLARITY Act) lower barriers. Macro debasement hedge + cycle recovery after ~11-month drawdown support $100k+ targets. On-chain profitability improving; network security high.Bear case: Historical 4-year cycles suggest incomplete bear (prior 75-85% drawdowns lasted ~12 months). Rally looks like short-squeeze bounce, not new bull. ETF flows volatile; sticky inflation/rate risks or recession could hit hard. CLARITY Act stalled (low 2026 odds). Maturing market means smaller percentage gains; residual downside to $40-60k possible before true bottom.Better evidence now: Bull side. Tangible ETF inflows, technical breakout, and structural adoption outweigh pure cycle analogies. Residual deeper-retest risk remains, but current demand data favors upside path of least resistance.
