Bitcoin is currently trading above $75,000, a critical weekly support zone. This level has already been retested, and how price behaves here will likely define Bitcoin’s next major trend move.
On the weekly timeframe, BTC is now trading below both the 20-week and 50-week moving averages — a technically fragile position. From here, the market splits into two clear scenarios.
🔵 Scenario 1: $75K Holds → Path Back to $100K
If Bitcoin holds the April 2025 low and defends the $75K zone, this move can still be classified as a healthy correction, not a trend break.
What this implies:
The higher-high, higher-low structure remains intact
$75K becomes a confirmed cyclical bottom
Selling pressure exhausts, buyers step back in
Regarding moving averages:
Yes, the 20W MA pressing below the 50W MA is bearish, but historically this can also act as a late-cycle signal, not necessarily the start of a bear market.
For bulls to fully regain control:
BTC must stop making lower lows around $75K
Reclaim and close above the 50W MA, currently near $100,400
A clean weekly close above this level would signal momentum flipping back bullish and the 4-year cycle continuing
🔴 Scenario 2: April Low Breaks → $50K–$60K Zone
This scenario is straightforward.
If Bitcoin loses the April 2025 low, market structure breaks:
The higher-low pattern fails
$75K flips from support to resistance
Downside opens toward $50K–$60k, a historically common reset zone after sharp macro corrections
This zone aligns with:
Major psychological support
Previous consolidation ranges
Typical drawdown depth within long-term cycles
⚖️ What Decides the Outcome?
It comes down to two binary signals:
1️⃣ Does Bitcoin hold $75K on weekly closes?
2️⃣ Does Bitcoin defend the April 2025 low?
Hold both → Scenario 1 stays alive
Lose both → Scenario 2 becomes the higher-probability path
Right now, Bitcoin is sitting at the decision point.
The market isn’t guessing — it’s waiting for confirmation.
