#nvidiaaiserverpricesriseover15%

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US100 / NASDAQ 100 — MY WEEKLY OUTLOOK

Let’s take a deeper look at US100 because the current 4H structure is sitting at a very important decision point.

Price is currently around 29,293, after rallying strongly from the 27,000–27,300 area and reaching roughly 30,200–30,300.

Since that high, we’ve seen a clear pullback.

So the question now is:

Is this simply a healthy correction before another move higher, or is Nasdaq preparing for a deeper retracement?

Here’s how I’m looking at it.

The broader 4H structure is still recovering from the July low, but short-term momentum has clearly weakened after the rejection from 30,200–30,300.

That means I’m not bearish on the market just because we are correcting — but I’m also not interested in blindly buying around 29,300.

The first level I’m watching is 29,500–29,700.

Why?

Because this is the immediate overhead reaction area after the recent sell-off. If buyers reclaim this zone and hold it as support, it would be the first sign that bullish momentum is returning.

Above that, I’m watching 29,900–30,100.

This is where price previously spent time consolidating before pushing toward the recent highs.

A clean break above 30,100 would put the recent 30,200–30,300 high back into focus.

And if US100 finally breaks and holds above 30,300, that would be a major bullish continuation signal.

Now let’s talk about the downside.

The first support I’m watching is 29,000–29,150.

This is important because price is currently sitting very close to this area and it has acted as a reaction zone during the recent structure.

If price sweeps below 29,000 and quickly reclaims it with bullish displacement, that could create an interesting long setup.

But if 29,000 breaks decisively, I would expect the correction to extend toward 28,700–28,800.

The next major support is 28,300–28,500.

This is a much more important 4H structural zone because it sits around the previous consolidation and reaction area.

If Nasdaq reaches this zone, I would be looking very closely for a liquidity sweep + bullish BOS before considering longs.

Below that, we have 27,700–28,000.

This is where the larger recovery started building momentum, so losing this area would be a much bigger warning for the bullish structure.

And finally, the major swing support remains around 27,000–27,300.

So these are the levels I’m focusing on:

🟢

29,000–29,150 — First support / buy-watch zone

🟢

28,700–28,800 — Short-term support

🟢

28,300–28,500 — Strong 4H demand

🟢

27,700–28,000 — Major structural support

🟢

27,000–27,300 — Major swing support

🔴

29,500–29,700 — Immediate resistance

🔴

29,900–30,100 — Key resistance

🔴

30,200–30,300 — Major swing-high resistance

🔥

Above 30,300 — Bullish continuation

Now, how would I actually trade this?

I’m NOT buying simply because price touches support.

I want confirmation.

If US100 enters 29,000–29,150, sweeps liquidity and then gives me a bullish BOS/displacement on the lower timeframe, that would be my first potential long setup.

If that zone fails, I’ll wait for 28,300–28,500.

That is the zone where I would become much more interested in finding a high-quality long after confirmation.

On the other side, if price rallies into 29,500–30,100 and starts rejecting, I would not chase longs.

A confirmed bearish rejection from this area could send price back toward:

🎯

29,150 → 28,800 → 28,500

And if 28,300 breaks decisively, the correction could become significantly deeper.

Now let’s bring in the fundamentals because Nasdaq is particularly sensitive to rates, yields and technology earnings.

The biggest macro issue right now is Treasury yields.

Long-term US yields have been rising sharply, with the 30-year Treasury yield recently reaching its highest level since 2007. Higher yields increase the discount rate applied to future earnings, which is especially important for high-growth technology stocks.

That is one reason why Nasdaq has been more vulnerable than the Dow during this recent pullback.

And we saw that clearly this week: Nasdaq fell around 2.1% for the week, while semiconductor stocks were hit particularly hard as rising yields pressured the AI/tech trade.

But now we have two major events coming up.

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NVIDIA earnings — August 26

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Jackson Hole — August 27–29

Nvidia is especially important because the company has become one of the biggest barometers for the AI trade.

Nvidia is expected to report Q2 earnings on August 26, with company guidance around $91B revenue ±2%, above the roughly $87.2B consensus cited in current market previews.

So the market will not only be looking at whether Nvidia beats expectations.

It will be watching:

• Revenue growth

• Data-center demand

• Gross margins

• Forward guidance

• AI infrastructure spending

• China/export restrictions

• Future capex from hyperscalers

A strong Nvidia report + strong guidance could provide a major catalyst for Nasdaq.

But remember:

A company can beat earnings and still fall if expectations are already too high.

That is why I want to trade the price reaction rather than predict the earnings number.

Then we have Jackson Hole.

Markets will be watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's appearance very closely for clues about the future path of monetary policy.

The key issue is simple:

Will the Fed become more supportive of lower rates, or will inflation/yields keep policy restrictive?

That matters enormously for Nasdaq.

Lower yields / dovish expectations → generally supportive for growth and tech.

Higher yields / hawkish expectations → generally negative for high-duration tech.

Current market commentary also highlights the combination of rising yields, AI valuation concerns and upcoming Nvidia earnings/Jackson Hole as the major tests for the stock-market rally.

There is also a geopolitical factor.

Higher energy prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty can keep inflation expectations elevated.

And if oil continues higher, that could make the Fed's job more difficult because higher energy costs can feed into inflation.

So for Nasdaq, I’m watching this relationship closely:

Oil ↑ + inflation expectations ↑ + Treasury yields ↑ = pressure on US100

while:

Yields ↓ + inflation expectations ↓ + strong AI earnings = potential Nasdaq upside

So my current bias is:

📈

Medium-term: Bullish recovery

⚠️

Short-term: Corrective

🟢

29,000–29,150 = First support

🔥

29,700 reclaim = Momentum improving

🚀

30,300 breakout = Strong bullish continuation

🔻

Below 28,300 = Deeper correction risk

My plan is simple.

If buyers defend 29,000–29,150 with confirmation, I’ll watch for:

🎯

29,500 → 29,900 → 30,200

If price breaks lower, I’ll wait for 28,300–28,500 rather than forcing a trade.

And if US100 breaks and holds above 30,300, the correction structure is effectively invalidated and I’ll start looking for continuation into fresh highs.

The biggest mistake here would be chasing the middle of the range.

Let price come to the level.

Wait for confirmation.

Then execute.

Next week could be extremely volatile because of Nvidia + Jackson Hole + Treasury yields.

So I’m staying patient and letting the market show its hand.

Trade the structure — not the eMOTION

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