1. BTC reclaimed the key cost basis of short‑term holders.
Back in summer, the ~$69,000 area was one of the main boundaries of the bear market. That's where the average purchase price of recent market participants sat, along with a massive supply of coins from people who had been underwater for months.
BTC has now broken back above that zone and reached nearly $73,000. Now the key is not just printing a nice candle, but holding above it.
2. ETFs are finally buying again.
Over the last four trading sessions, US Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $1 billion in net inflows.
August 19 was especially notable — $517 million in a single day.
Just a month ago, the market's biggest problem was the lack of institutional demand. Now that demand is finally starting to return.
3. Long‑term holders have been accumulating for a while.
While weak hands were locking in losses near $60,000, long‑term holders started increasing their positions again. To me, this is one of the most important signs of a bottom forming — supply is gradually moving to people who aren't looking to sell on the first bounce.
4. The main capitulation is already behind us.
Over the summer, nearly all short‑term holders were in the red, realised losses surged, ETFs were bleeding, volumes were dry, and sentiment was dead.
That's exactly what the late stage of a bear cycle should look like.
5. Supply overhead has thinned noticeably.
After reclaiming $69,000, the next truly heavy resistance zone is much higher — roughly $83,000–86,000.
Between the current price and that area, the market has accumulated significantly fewer coins. If demand holds, the move could happen faster than many expect.
6. The market finally got liquidity.
The rally started after US bond yields declined and the dollar weakened. Lack of proper liquidity was exactly what crypto had been missing for almost the entire bear market.
If yields keep falling and the market finally stops pricing in another Fed hike, the conditions for Bitcoin will become much more favourable.
7. Crypto is starting to attract capital again, even as equities struggle.
BTC's latest impulse didn't just happen alongside a Nasdaq rally. Bitcoin began showing its own relative strength.
That's important to me — for the first time in a while, capital is starting to choose crypto itself, rather than just buying everything in risk‑on mode.
8. The infrastructure survived the bear market.
ETFs are live, institutions haven't gone anywhere, stablecoins stayed within the ecosystem, US regulation has become much clearer, and major companies continue to hold Bitcoin.
So this time around, we don't need to rebuild the infrastructure for the next cycle from scratch. It's already there.
