Fed's Musalem: Die Politik ist derzeit neutral oder unterstützend — Anhebung jetzt könnte noch Aggressiveres vermeiden

Rymond Inc · 2026-08-21T03:55:46.000Z

Alberto Musalem, Präsident der Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, der in 2026 kein stimmberechtigtes Mitglied des Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ist — St. Louis rotiert den Stimmplatz mit Atlanta und Dallas, und Dallas hat ihn in diesem Jahr, sagte, er habe empfohlen, die Zinsen im Juli anzuheben, habe jedoch davon abgesehen, durchblicken zu lassen, was er sich für die September-Sitzung wünscht. Diese Zurückhaltung steht im Gegensatz zu einer eher hawkischen Lesart der Preise: Die zugrunde liegende Inflation liege zwischen 2,5 % und 3 %, sagte er, und sie sei zu hoch und müsse sinken.

Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, who is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2026 — St. Louis rotates through the voting seat with Atlanta and Dallas, and Dallas holds it this year, said he recommended raising rates in July, though he declined to tip his hand on what he wants out of the September meeting. That caution sits against a fairly hawkish read on prices: underlying inflation is running between 2.5% and 3%, he said, and it's too high and needs to come down.
 He wants headline inflation back to 2% within 18 months, but given where rates sit today, he sees a lower probability of actually getting there. Monetary policy, in his assessment, is neutral to accommodative right now — not restrictive — and hiking sooner could spare the Fed a more aggressive scramble later.
On the labor market, Musalem struck a calmer note, seeing no inflation pressure coming from that corner of the economy. He flagged a potential super El Nino as the next possible supply shock, and stressed that when shocks like that hit, the Fed needs to look through the noise to core inflation rather than chase the headline print. 
Financial conditions, he said, are fairly accommodative overall, with strong growth and investment feeding into the bond market — though he noted pockets of the economy where credit is starting to get crowded out.
Musalem was unambiguous on the institutional front: Fed credibility isn't in question, and the central bank remains focused on keeping monetary policy independent of fiscal policy. Forward guidance, he added, is a tool built for a zero-rate world, not the one the Fed is operating in now. He also made the case that the best thing the Fed can do for growth is get inflation back to target — even as businesses contend with high input costs and productivity shows early signs of a recovery.
Key QuotesMonetary Policy
Recommended raising rates in July, but won't offer a firm view on what he wants the Fed to do at the September FOMC.
Monetary policy is neutral or accommodative right now.
Hiking rates now could save more aggressive action later.
Inflation
Wants inflation down to 2% within 18 months.
When you have supply shocks, you have to look at core inflation.
Underlying inflation is between 2.5%-3%. 
It is too high and must be lowered.
Number one concern of the public is inflation.
Given current Fed rates, sees a lower probability of getting inflation to 2%.
Labor Market
There is no inflation pressure coming from the labor market.
Fed Transparency & Accountability
Forward guidance suggests a commitment, communicating a framework is different.
Forward guidance is useful when rates are at zero.
Fed credibility is not in question.
Fed is focused on making monetary policy independent of fiscal policy. 
Financial Conditions
There are some parts of the economy seeing credit getting crowded out.
Strong growth and investment is influencing bond markets.
Financial conditions are pretty accommodative here.
Growth & Economy
Businesses are facing high input costs.
The best thing the Fed can do for growth is get inflation back to 2%.
AI & Productivity
Productivity is seeing a recovery.
Energy & External Risks
A super El Nino might be the next supply shock.