ok so jobless claims came in at 206k today, down from 212k last week. headlines are gonna call this "strong labor market" but if you actually look past the top line... the 4-week average went UP to 204k and continuing claims climbed to 1.8 million. people are having a harder time finding new jobs even if fewer are getting laid off right now.
and get this — an economist literally said the labor market "hasn't shown any wear and tear" from the oil price surge tied to the Iran war. that's the real story nobody's headline-ing.
markets will probably read this as goldilocks (not too hot, not too cold) which keeps the Fed on track for cuts. that's actually decent news for risk assets — lower rate expectations tend to be a tailwind for BTC and majors. watching if we get a green reaction into the close or if the mixed internals (rising continuing claims) spook things instead.
not investment advice, just thinking out loud 🤔
#USJoblessClaimsFallTo206000
and get this — an economist literally said the labor market "hasn't shown any wear and tear" from the oil price surge tied to the Iran war. that's the real story nobody's headline-ing.
markets will probably read this as goldilocks (not too hot, not too cold) which keeps the Fed on track for cuts. that's actually decent news for risk assets — lower rate expectations tend to be a tailwind for BTC and majors. watching if we get a green reaction into the close or if the mixed internals (rising continuing claims) spook things instead.
not investment advice, just thinking out loud 🤔
#USJoblessClaimsFallTo206000