According to Glassnode, Bitcoin may not have fully exhausted its selling pressure yet. Despite the recent recovery, BTC is still trading below both the Short-Term Holder cost basis (~$68.5K) and the overall market realized price (~$75.8K).
There are several reasons why Glassnode remains cautious:
1️⃣ Selling pressure may not be exhausted
The 90-day realized profit/loss ratio is currently around 0.75.
In simple terms, for every $1 of realized loss, the market is realizing only around $0.75 of profit.
During previous Bitcoin cycles, this metric often had to fall below 0.5 before selling pressure was considered truly exhausted.
2️⃣ No confirmed trend reversal yet
Glassnode argues that the market should be cautious about calling this a new bull trend.
Historically, a sustained recovery becomes much more convincing once the realized profit/loss ratio moves above roughly 2.
Until then, the current move may still be better described as a relief rally or recovery phase, rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
3️⃣ The bottoming process could take longer
Unrealized losses currently account for roughly 25% of Bitcoin's market capitalization.
That is significantly below the 60%+ levels seen during previous major market bottoms.
At first glance, that sounds positive.
But there is another side to it: coins currently sitting at a loss are spread across a much wider range of price levels.
That could mean Bitcoin needs to spend more time moving sideways and absorbing supply before a sustainable bottom is established.
4️⃣ Spot demand still hasn't returned
Leverage traders have already started rebuilding long positions and are willing to pay funding costs to maintain that exposure.
But the Coinbase Premium remains negative, suggesting that U.S. spot demand has not yet returned decisively.
That's an important distinction.
Speculative capital is coming back, but real spot buying from the U.S. market is still relatively weak.
The bottom line
Bitcoin is certainly looking healthier than it did at the worst point of the sell-off, mainly because speculative demand is returning.
But the data still doesn't show a completely exhausted seller base or strong spot accumulation.
So calling a definitive bottom or trend reversal right now may still be premature.
The bounce is real. The confirmation isn't.
$BTC $ETH $BOME
