VanEck's latest ChainCheck just dropped a major signal: 8 out of 12 capitulation indicators are firing right now. Translation? $BTC might be scraping the bottom.
All 12 indicators hit capitulation zones over the last 3 months. That's historically extreme territory. $BTC closed Aug 11 at $63,549, basically flat for the month, while 30-day realized vol crashed to 27.2% (way under the ~80% long-term avg).
Still ~49% off ATH. Ouch.
VanEck's take: we're likely entering accumulation phase. Average bear market? 11 months peak-to-trough. We're in month 10 since the Oct 2025 top.
Catch: past clusters with 8-12 signals firing showed mixed short-term returns (90d/180d below baseline), but 1-year returns looked solid on limited data.
Long-term holders are dumping too. Coins held 1+ year dropped by 356k $BTC in 30 days to 11.84M, pushing them under 60% of supply for the first time in months.
Bottom line: macro pain might be ending, but don't expect instant moonshots. Accumulation phase = patience game.
All 12 indicators hit capitulation zones over the last 3 months. That's historically extreme territory. $BTC closed Aug 11 at $63,549, basically flat for the month, while 30-day realized vol crashed to 27.2% (way under the ~80% long-term avg).
Still ~49% off ATH. Ouch.
VanEck's take: we're likely entering accumulation phase. Average bear market? 11 months peak-to-trough. We're in month 10 since the Oct 2025 top.
Catch: past clusters with 8-12 signals firing showed mixed short-term returns (90d/180d below baseline), but 1-year returns looked solid on limited data.
Long-term holders are dumping too. Coins held 1+ year dropped by 356k $BTC in 30 days to 11.84M, pushing them under 60% of supply for the first time in months.
Bottom line: macro pain might be ending, but don't expect instant moonshots. Accumulation phase = patience game.