Most people think prediction markets = some guy reading news and calling the winner.
Wrong.
Polymarket data drop (July 23):
• 584,210 total markets analyzed
• 582,754 have written resolution rules
• 1,456 have ZERO rules
60.31% settle on scheduled contest results (tennis, World Cup, CS maps)
30.41% settle on price feeds
5.55% settle on published stats
= 96.27% of markets are just reading scoreboards and data feeds.
Human judgement? Only 5,396 markets. That's 0.92%.
The wars. The elections. The leadership changes. All of it sits in that tiny 0.92% sliver.
By volume, humans barely matter. By impact? That's where the real alpha lives.
Wrong.
Polymarket data drop (July 23):
• 584,210 total markets analyzed
• 582,754 have written resolution rules
• 1,456 have ZERO rules
60.31% settle on scheduled contest results (tennis, World Cup, CS maps)
30.41% settle on price feeds
5.55% settle on published stats
= 96.27% of markets are just reading scoreboards and data feeds.
Human judgement? Only 5,396 markets. That's 0.92%.
The wars. The elections. The leadership changes. All of it sits in that tiny 0.92% sliver.
By volume, humans barely matter. By impact? That's where the real alpha lives.