đ A September Fed hike is starting to look less likely.
CME Fed Watch now shows just a 30.6% probability of a 25bp hike in September, down from around 40% before the latest data. Markets are increasingly pricing in the Fed holding rates at 3.50â3.75%, with the odds now above 65%.
The latest numbers are giving the doves more ammunition: CPI cooled to 3.4%, July PPI came in flat, retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, consumer confidence dropped sharply to 51, and jobless claims moved higher. Even mortgage rates finally broke their five-week climb.
Of course, the hawkish side hasnât disappeared. Hamaker still argues that policy isnât restrictive enough. But right now, the bond market seems to be sending a different message.
For risk assets, a softer September could be a meaningful catalyst. BTC and gold may have more room to move higher if expectations continue shifting toward easier policy.
Next major signal: FOMC minutes.
If 30.6% keeps falling toward 25% or lower, the macro setup could change quickly. đ§
#CMESeptemberHikeOddsFallTo30.6% #ChinaJulyOutputRetailInvestmentAllMiss #BitcoinHoldsNear$63500 #IsraelStrikesLebanonKillsHezbollahCommander
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CME Fed Watch now shows just a 30.6% probability of a 25bp hike in September, down from around 40% before the latest data. Markets are increasingly pricing in the Fed holding rates at 3.50â3.75%, with the odds now above 65%.
The latest numbers are giving the doves more ammunition: CPI cooled to 3.4%, July PPI came in flat, retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, consumer confidence dropped sharply to 51, and jobless claims moved higher. Even mortgage rates finally broke their five-week climb.
Of course, the hawkish side hasnât disappeared. Hamaker still argues that policy isnât restrictive enough. But right now, the bond market seems to be sending a different message.
For risk assets, a softer September could be a meaningful catalyst. BTC and gold may have more room to move higher if expectations continue shifting toward easier policy.
Next major signal: FOMC minutes.
If 30.6% keeps falling toward 25% or lower, the macro setup could change quickly. đ§
#CMESeptemberHikeOddsFallTo30.6% #ChinaJulyOutputRetailInvestmentAllMiss #BitcoinHoldsNear$63500 #IsraelStrikesLebanonKillsHezbollahCommander
$SOL
$BNB
$BTC