#bstockscis USARB missed on both lines this quarter and the stock went up anyway — and I don't think "the market ignored bad earnings" is actually the right read here. 📊
Q2: EPS of -$0.15 against a -$0.13 estimate — a miss of roughly 15% on the per-share loss itself. Revenue of $5.82M against $8.21M expected is a bigger gap: about $2.39M short, or a 29% miss against consensus, which is a wide margin of error for analysts to have gotten wrong in one direction. Yet USARB gained 9.2% on August 14 alone, on renewed attention to its Round Top rare-earth project and government-backed critical-minerals policy support.
Now the part worth actually running numbers on: the company disclosed $1.53B in cash on hand, but flagged that significant new equity needs to be raised in 2027 regardless. The Serra Verde transaction plus an attached federal warrant already represent roughly 62.8% of the company's current implied share count. In plain terms, if you own 1% of USARB today on a pre-deal basis, full dilution from just this one transaction alone pushes your effective stake toward roughly 0.61% once those shares and warrants are fully counted — a reduction of nearly 40% in relative ownership, before any 2027 capital raise even happens. 🚩
Earnings miss + policy rally + a dilution setup that shaves relative ownership by close to 40% before it's even finished — which of those three actually worries you most?
@BinanceCIS $USARB #bStocksCIS
Q2: EPS of -$0.15 against a -$0.13 estimate — a miss of roughly 15% on the per-share loss itself. Revenue of $5.82M against $8.21M expected is a bigger gap: about $2.39M short, or a 29% miss against consensus, which is a wide margin of error for analysts to have gotten wrong in one direction. Yet USARB gained 9.2% on August 14 alone, on renewed attention to its Round Top rare-earth project and government-backed critical-minerals policy support.
Now the part worth actually running numbers on: the company disclosed $1.53B in cash on hand, but flagged that significant new equity needs to be raised in 2027 regardless. The Serra Verde transaction plus an attached federal warrant already represent roughly 62.8% of the company's current implied share count. In plain terms, if you own 1% of USARB today on a pre-deal basis, full dilution from just this one transaction alone pushes your effective stake toward roughly 0.61% once those shares and warrants are fully counted — a reduction of nearly 40% in relative ownership, before any 2027 capital raise even happens. 🚩
Earnings miss + policy rally + a dilution setup that shaves relative ownership by close to 40% before it's even finished — which of those three actually worries you most?
@BinanceCIS $USARB #bStocksCIS