Took profits on most positions today as $anthropic IPO speculation heats up. Both $anthropic and $OpenAI rallied hard, though this bounce didn't outperform traditional cloud plays.
Initial thesis: US closed-source duopoly ($OpenAI + $anthropic) hitting $3-5T combined valuation. But open-source models—especially DeepSeek—threw pricing power into question.
Exited most exposure for now. Will re-enter later since the US foundation model race is essentially over. The duopoly (or triopoly with $GOOG) has locked it down. No new challengers breaking through at this scale.
Initial thesis: US closed-source duopoly ($OpenAI + $anthropic) hitting $3-5T combined valuation. But open-source models—especially DeepSeek—threw pricing power into question.
Exited most exposure for now. Will re-enter later since the US foundation model race is essentially over. The duopoly (or triopoly with $GOOG) has locked it down. No new challengers breaking through at this scale.