🚨 GRAYSCALE FADES BITCOIN 4-YEAR CYCLE
In a new report, Grayscale argues the 4-year cycle may no longer apply due to:
• No parabolic bull market overshoot
• ETPs and DATs reshaping market structure
• A structurally bullish macro backdrop
Grayscale expects new highs in 2026 🚀
Bitcoin Dominance dropped hard today
The channel is now broken
Alts are holding strong & gaining momentum slowly. I think once BTC bounces back up, Altcoins will pump hard and outperform Btc.
When people see crypto volumes staying high, they ask:
“Why is price slow if interest is still here?”
It’s rotation, mate.
Capital doesn’t leave crypto overnight.
It moves, waits, and repositions.
That’s what this chart shows.
Many traders focus only on price action and miss the bigger signal: liquidity.
Volume is where commitment lives.
While prices chopped through 2025, monthly exchange volume remained historically elevated. That tells you participants stayed active they just became selective.
Think of crypto like a power-law market.
A small number of periods drive most gains.
The rest are accumulation, rotation, and positioning phases.
Volume expansion without vertical price moves usually means:
▪️ Capital is entering
▪️ Risk is being redistributed
▪️ The next trend is being prepared
This is how markets breathe.
➭ 𝗘𝘅𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗲: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗔𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗮𝘆𝘀
Looking at 2025 → early 2026:
▪️ Liquidity never collapsed
Despite corrections, activity stayed strong no mass exit.
▪️ Binance maintained dominance
Deep liquidity still attracts serious traders.
▪️ “Other exchanges” gained share
Capital diversified across platforms → healthier market structure.
▪️ Q3–Q4 volume expansion matters
Sustained participation, not speculative spikes.
This isn’t a dead market.
It’s a patient one.
➭ 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝘂𝗺𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗛𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀
Price reacts.
Volume positions.
High volume during sideways markets often precedes:
▪️ Trend continuation
▪️ Sector rotation
▪️ Liquidity-driven breakouts
Markets don’t explode from silence.
They explode from built pressure.
➭ 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗜 𝗨𝘀𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲
I don’t trade noise.
I track:
▪️ Where volume concentrates
▪️ Which exchanges gain relevance
▪️ Spot activity vs leverage
▪️ When participation confirms structure
That’s how you stay early without guessing tops or bottoms.
✍️ 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻
High volume in quiet markets isn’t weakness.
It’s preparation.
Crypto rewards those who read flows, not feelings.
This chart isn’t about the past
it’s about what’s being built underneath price.
A lot of people have been asking for an update on this chart, so I’ll just leave this here for anyone who needs to see it.
This shows the average BTC trajectory following an oversold RSI reading, with RSI falling below 30 at t=0.
So far, it’s been pretty bang on.
Unless you believe the 4-year cycle is still in play, which we don’t, this chart should hold up contextually over time.
No, it won’t be perfect, but assuming the bull market isn’t already over, it’s a useful chart to keep in mind.
As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.
In that world, the 4-year cycle is dead.
Remember, the 4-year cycle was never about the halving, despite widespread belief that it is, but instead has always been driven by the public debt refinancing cycle, as outlined in our work at GMI, which post-COVID was pushed out by one year.
In our view, the 4-year cycle is now officially broken because the weighted average maturity of the debt term structure has increased.
And the bigger picture is that there is still a vast amount of interest expense that needs to be monetized, which has far exceeded GDP growth.
Another thing to keep in mind is that bases can take time to form and usually come with plenty of chop before the bigger up-move kicks in.
Finally, let me repeat what I said when I first posted this chart last month.
If you think the bull market is over and we are now facing twelve months of pain, this chart is not for you. Move along...
