Inflation...
While everyone was sweating over CPI, the real surprise quietly showed up on the other side. July PPI came in at 4.7% year over year against a forecast of 4.9%, the second straight cooldown after June's 5.5%.
The funniest part is in the details. Goods prices actually fell 0.7%, factories are basically giving product away at this point. Services on the other hand rose 0.2%, because anything a human touches instead of a machine keeps getting more expensive no matter what. Capitalism in its purest form.
And while the headline looks calm, prices at the very first stage of production are still up 9.7% year over year. That pressure hasn't disappeared, it's just stuck further up the chain, waiting its turn to show up at the register in a few months.
After yesterday's uneventful CPI, the market had already started pricing in a Fed pause for September, and now PPI hands traders one more argument against a hike. Warsh is stuck in a spot where the hawks are running out of a straight face to make their case with.
Who's still holding shorts betting on a September hike, and who's quietly rotated into the dovish trade already?
Not financial advice, just the numbers worth having on your radar right now.
#PPI #Fed #Inflation $NVDAB $SPYB $SPY
While everyone was sweating over CPI, the real surprise quietly showed up on the other side. July PPI came in at 4.7% year over year against a forecast of 4.9%, the second straight cooldown after June's 5.5%.
The funniest part is in the details. Goods prices actually fell 0.7%, factories are basically giving product away at this point. Services on the other hand rose 0.2%, because anything a human touches instead of a machine keeps getting more expensive no matter what. Capitalism in its purest form.
And while the headline looks calm, prices at the very first stage of production are still up 9.7% year over year. That pressure hasn't disappeared, it's just stuck further up the chain, waiting its turn to show up at the register in a few months.
After yesterday's uneventful CPI, the market had already started pricing in a Fed pause for September, and now PPI hands traders one more argument against a hike. Warsh is stuck in a spot where the hawks are running out of a straight face to make their case with.
Who's still holding shorts betting on a September hike, and who's quietly rotated into the dovish trade already?
Not financial advice, just the numbers worth having on your radar right now.
#PPI #Fed #Inflation $NVDAB $SPYB $SPY