Every Facebook stock price prediction I read modelled revenue. That was never where the difficulty sat
Look at the last twelve months. The business kept growing, last quarter posting $60.80 billion at 28% year over year with 3.6 billion daily active users. The share price still fell roughly 23.5% over that period, from a peak of $796.25 last August down to a March low of $520.26.
Nothing deteriorated in the business. What shifted was how much capital spending the market would tolerate, now guided at $130 billion to $145 billion for 2026, nearly double earlier plans.
A revenue model cannot capture a shift in tolerance. That is why the targets kept pointing at $767 while the tape went the other way.
I keep short-term $META on Bitunix as a perp instead of buying shares. Derivative instead of equity, a funding fee applies for the duration, and leverage stays low since liquidation risk never switches off.
Model the business if you enjoy it, then size for the multiple. Could be wrong.
Look at the last twelve months. The business kept growing, last quarter posting $60.80 billion at 28% year over year with 3.6 billion daily active users. The share price still fell roughly 23.5% over that period, from a peak of $796.25 last August down to a March low of $520.26.
Nothing deteriorated in the business. What shifted was how much capital spending the market would tolerate, now guided at $130 billion to $145 billion for 2026, nearly double earlier plans.
A revenue model cannot capture a shift in tolerance. That is why the targets kept pointing at $767 while the tape went the other way.
I keep short-term $META on Bitunix as a perp instead of buying shares. Derivative instead of equity, a funding fee applies for the duration, and leverage stays low since liquidation risk never switches off.
Model the business if you enjoy it, then size for the multiple. Could be wrong.