Pump.fun already ran this exact experiment once. In July, an 82.5 billion token unlock — more than 10x the size of today's — hit the market. $PUMP didn't crash. It rallied 30-50% in the following weeks.
That's the bull case traders are leaning on right now. But scale matters: today's 6.875 billion unlock is smaller, so it's a weaker test of whether that resilience was really about deep liquidity absorbing supply, or about the platform upgrades that happened to land at the same time back in July. Watch $0.00208-0.00210 as the floor if selling pressure builds, and $0.00293-0.00300 as resistance if the market shrugs this off the same way.
Bias: history leans toward absorption over crash. Invalidated if price breaks below $0.00208 on volume — that would mean this unlock is behaving differently than July's did. #TokenUnlock
That's the bull case traders are leaning on right now. But scale matters: today's 6.875 billion unlock is smaller, so it's a weaker test of whether that resilience was really about deep liquidity absorbing supply, or about the platform upgrades that happened to land at the same time back in July. Watch $0.00208-0.00210 as the floor if selling pressure builds, and $0.00293-0.00300 as resistance if the market shrugs this off the same way.
Bias: history leans toward absorption over crash. Invalidated if price breaks below $0.00208 on volume — that would mean this unlock is behaving differently than July's did. #TokenUnlock