$ONDO down 85% from ATH — macro base forming or dead money?

Cycle ATH: $2.15
Cycle low: $0.20 (92% drawdown)
Current accumulation zone: $0.19–$0.25

Price swept sell-side liquidity into deep discount. Now compressing with higher lows against descending resistance. Multi-month coil.

Key levels:
• Bullish confirmation: 3D close above $0.5394
• Invalidation: 3D close below $0.2016
• Bull targets if structure flips: $1 → $1.60 → $3 → $5

Previous call from Feb 2026 accumulation zone delivered +116%. That demand held. Now watching same zone again.

Fundamentals:
✅ Tokenized treasuries + RWA infrastructure scaling
✅ Institutional integrations expanding
⚠️ Token unlocks = structural supply risk
⚠️ Product growth ≠ automatic token value accrual
⚠️ Macro liquidity still king

$0.19–$0.25 is the zone. If it holds on retest, this could be one of the cleaner long-term setups for $ONDO. But no confirmation until $0.5394 breaks on HTF.

Until then: potential accumulation, not confirmed bull market.

Invalidation: close below $0.17

NFA. Manage risk.