U.S. July CPI: A Critical Threshold for Markets The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July CPI data on Wednesday, August 12, at 15:30 TRT (08:30 ET). It is the week’s key macro indicator and could shape the Fed’s September path. June CPI surprised markets: annual CPI fell from 4.2% to 3.5%, below 3.8% expected, while monthly CPI dropped 0.4%, its sharpest decline since April 2020. Core CPI fell from 2.9% to 2.6% YoY versus 2.8% expected, helped by falling energy prices after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. At the July 29 FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% and projected only one 25-bp cut for 2026, a more hawkish stance than markets expected. For July, consensus sees headline CPI at around 2.8% and core CPI at 3.0% YoY. Markets will focus on energy prices, shelter inflation and sticky goods prices. September rate-cut pricing is roughly split between 25 and 50 bps, raising the risk of a sharp market reaction. If headline CPI is below 2.7% and core below 2.9%, markets could price a stronger chance of a 50-bp September cut. The dollar would likely weaken, while gold, silver, equities and Bitcoin could rally. If CPI is around 2.8% and core around 3.0%, current Fed pricing would likely remain largely intact. If headline CPI exceeds 3.0% and core exceeds 3.2%, sticky-inflation concerns would return. The dollar would likely strengthen as rate-cut expectations decline, while equities and crypto could come under pressure. Gold and silver could also weaken, although Middle East geopolitical risks may sustain safe-haven demand. Higher energy prices from U.S.-Iran tensions could lift inflation while supporting safe-haven demand for gold and silver. Wednesday’s CPI will be critical for the Fed’s September decision and near-term market direction. Monthly core CPI deserves particular attention because annual figures can be distorted by base effects. $BTC $ETH