$NBIS earnings on Aug 12 — expectations are sky-high and that's the problem.
Stock ran +550% from $44 (Jul '25) to $286 ATH (Jun '26). Signals look strong: capacity sold out at higher prices, longer contracts with more prepayments, AI infra demand still crushing supply. That usually means revenue hits top-end guidance or beats.
Goldman's 5 things to watch:
1. Revenue guidance: Current range $3.0–3.4B, consensus already at $3.36B. Will they raise or tighten?
2. Meta risk: ~$27B deal locked in, but could Meta shift to in-house cloud? Watch how management defends the moat.
3. New customer wins in enterprise + startups.
4. Power capacity: 3.5GW contracted in Q1, targeting 4GW+ by year-end. Any new site drops, power milestones, or regulatory delays?
5. Full-stack AI cloud opened to infra partners in Jul '26. Watch adoption traction and unit economics.
Priced for perfection. Any miss or weak guidance and this thing bleeds hard.
Stock ran +550% from $44 (Jul '25) to $286 ATH (Jun '26). Signals look strong: capacity sold out at higher prices, longer contracts with more prepayments, AI infra demand still crushing supply. That usually means revenue hits top-end guidance or beats.
Goldman's 5 things to watch:
1. Revenue guidance: Current range $3.0–3.4B, consensus already at $3.36B. Will they raise or tighten?
2. Meta risk: ~$27B deal locked in, but could Meta shift to in-house cloud? Watch how management defends the moat.
3. New customer wins in enterprise + startups.
4. Power capacity: 3.5GW contracted in Q1, targeting 4GW+ by year-end. Any new site drops, power milestones, or regulatory delays?
5. Full-stack AI cloud opened to infra partners in Jul '26. Watch adoption traction and unit economics.
Priced for perfection. Any miss or weak guidance and this thing bleeds hard.