#This Wednesday's CPI release, will the September rate hike pricing be rewritten?
Gold at 4315, $BTC 64960, $ETH 1917. Three assets, one direction, sideways.
Gold pulled from 4216 to 4370, up 150 points. Then oscillated between 4300-4360. BTC moved from 64111 to 65500, broke 65000 then came back, came back then went up again, up then down again. ETH follows BTC, grinding around 1920.
Why sideways? Because everyone is waiting for Wednesday's CPI.
The nonfarm payrolls flipped the table halfway. July nonfarm -23,000, May and June revised down by 103,000. The cooling of the job market is much faster than expected. Polymarket shows 63% for rate hold, Kalshi 65%, CME 55.6%. Three platforms, two over 60%, one just over half. The market consensus exists but is not strong.
Why? Because CPI hasn't come out yet.
Expected overall CPI 3.4%, previous 3.5%. Core CPI 2.5%, previous 2.6%. Looks like a mild decline, but core service inflation is still holding up; rent, medical costs don't drop in a month.
If CPI is low, rate cut expectations are confirmed, 65000 is the floor, gold 4300 is just the starting point. If CPI is high, all the nonfarm benefits are void, rate hike expectations bounce back, 65000 becomes the ceiling again.
It's that simple.
ETF inflows are real, net inflow this week 865 million. But whether it can continue depends on CPI. Gold holding above 4300 depends on CPI. Whether September hikes or not depends on CPI.
Everyone is waiting for the same data.
Nonfarm flipped the table, CPI decides the direction. See you Wednesday.
Gold at 4315, $BTC 64960, $ETH 1917. Three assets, one direction, sideways.
Gold pulled from 4216 to 4370, up 150 points. Then oscillated between 4300-4360. BTC moved from 64111 to 65500, broke 65000 then came back, came back then went up again, up then down again. ETH follows BTC, grinding around 1920.
Why sideways? Because everyone is waiting for Wednesday's CPI.
The nonfarm payrolls flipped the table halfway. July nonfarm -23,000, May and June revised down by 103,000. The cooling of the job market is much faster than expected. Polymarket shows 63% for rate hold, Kalshi 65%, CME 55.6%. Three platforms, two over 60%, one just over half. The market consensus exists but is not strong.
Why? Because CPI hasn't come out yet.
Expected overall CPI 3.4%, previous 3.5%. Core CPI 2.5%, previous 2.6%. Looks like a mild decline, but core service inflation is still holding up; rent, medical costs don't drop in a month.
If CPI is low, rate cut expectations are confirmed, 65000 is the floor, gold 4300 is just the starting point. If CPI is high, all the nonfarm benefits are void, rate hike expectations bounce back, 65000 becomes the ceiling again.
It's that simple.
ETF inflows are real, net inflow this week 865 million. But whether it can continue depends on CPI. Gold holding above 4300 depends on CPI. Whether September hikes or not depends on CPI.
Everyone is waiting for the same data.
Nonfarm flipped the table, CPI decides the direction. See you Wednesday.