Trump has claimed an Iran deal is "close" dozens of times. Markets keep rallying anyway — even when nothing happens.
This week, hopes of a US-Iran deal on the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices down and stocks soaring to record highs. No deal actually emerged. This isn't new — it's happened repeatedly over the past five months, even as the war reportedly widens rather than resolves.
RBC's Helena Croft put it simply: "There's tremendous optimism bias in the market." Investors keep buying the promise of resolution, not the resolution itself.
This is a real lesson in how markets price hope, not facts. Reacting to every "deal is close" headline without confirmation is exactly how traders get whipsawed — buying rallies that reverse once reality catches up.
Do you trade on "deal is close" headlines, or wait for confirmation? 👇
$BTC
#BIP110SoftForkAttemptBegins #SouthKoreaProposesLooseningCryptoShareholderRules #SenateReadiesSeptemberCLARITYActVote #BTCPayServerExploitDrainsLightningNodes
This week, hopes of a US-Iran deal on the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices down and stocks soaring to record highs. No deal actually emerged. This isn't new — it's happened repeatedly over the past five months, even as the war reportedly widens rather than resolves.
RBC's Helena Croft put it simply: "There's tremendous optimism bias in the market." Investors keep buying the promise of resolution, not the resolution itself.
This is a real lesson in how markets price hope, not facts. Reacting to every "deal is close" headline without confirmation is exactly how traders get whipsawed — buying rallies that reverse once reality catches up.
Do you trade on "deal is close" headlines, or wait for confirmation? 👇
$BTC
#BIP110SoftForkAttemptBegins #SouthKoreaProposesLooseningCryptoShareholderRules #SenateReadiesSeptemberCLARITYActVote #BTCPayServerExploitDrainsLightningNodes