Michael Saylor tweeted victory. MSTR surged 6%. Financial media declared the MSCI crisis averted. Consensus shifted from existential threat to unconstrained accumulation. The narrative flipped in a single news cycle.
Nobody read paragraph four.
“New shares issued after the announcement will be excluded from index weight calculations.”
One sentence buried in the MSCI deferral. One sentence that restructures everything.
The flywheel that built 709,715 Bitcoin required a specific mechanism. Strategy issues shares at premium. Passive index funds mechanically absorb new supply because index weight demands it. Premium sustains from structural buying. Strategy issues more shares. Acquires more Bitcoin. Premium rebuilds. Repeat.
This mechanism added 460,000 BTC in 2025 alone.
That mechanism just got a governor installed.
Every future ATM raise now faces price discovery without the passive bid. Index funds hold existing shares but will not scale exposure with new issuance. The reflexive loop that transformed a software company into the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury in history now operates under constraints that did not exist twelve months ago.
The numbers reveal the bind.
mNAV sits at 0.98x diluted. Not the 0.85x crisis that triggered “mathematically we would have to sell” discussions in December. Not the 1.2x premium that funded the legendary accumulation. Purgatory. Market capitalization equals Bitcoin value with no surplus to arbitrage through issuance.
$STRC volume averages $79.6 million over thirty days. Below the $100 million threshold that signals robust institutional demand for the 11% perpetual preferred. Holding par at $100.01 but not expanding.
22,305 BTC purchased last week for $2.13 billion. The single largest weekly acquisition in Strategy history. Proof the mechanism still functions.
But functioning and scaling are different conditions.
3.38% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist. Acquired at $75,979 average through a structure that no longer operates in its original form.
The bulls are pricing unconstrained victory. The bears already covered. The fine print suggests something more interesting than either narrative.
A siege with a speed limit.
