Fed- Musalem: Ich befürwortete Zinserhöhungen — Die Politik muss die Inflation bremsen, nicht Produktivitätsgewinne hinterherjagen

Rymond Inc · 2026-08-07T04:14:32.000Z

St. Louis-Fed-Präsident Alberto Musalem, der im Jahr 2026 kein stimmberechtigtes Mitglied des Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ist, hat offengelegt, dass er eine Anhebung der Zinsen befürwortet. Bei seinem Auftritt in São Paulo, Brasilien, sagte er, er sehe eine höhere Wahrscheinlichkeit dafür, dass die Inflation über dem Zielniveau bleibt, und argumentierte, dass schrittweise Zinserhöhungen weniger Kosten verursachen als abrupte politische Kurswechsel. Er sagte, die Inflation sei zu hoch; die Risiken seien zugunsten weiterer Preisdruckniveaus verschoben. Außerdem bezifferte er die zugrunde liegende Inflation auf 2,5% bis 3% — deutlich über dem 2%-Ziel der Fed. Er möchte monatliche Daten unter 0,2% sehen, bevor er zufrieden ist, dass echte Fortschritte erzielt werden.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem, who is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in 2026, revealed he favored raising rates at the Fed's recent meeting. Speaking in São Paulo, Brazil, he said he sees a higher probability that inflation stays above target and argued that gradual rate increases carry less cost than abrupt policy shifts. 
He called inflation too high, with the balance of risks tilted toward further price pressure, and pegged underlying inflation between 2.5% and 3% — well above the Fed's 2% goal; he wants monthly readings below 0.2% before he's satisfied progress is real. 
On the labor market, Musalem struck a calmer note: payrolls have stabilized, unemployment sits close to its longer-run value, and the job market, in his view, isn't a source of inflation pressure. Turning to AI, he described himself as a productivity optimist but stressed the evidence doesn't yet justify easing policy on the promise of a future productivity windfall
. Cheaper financing can pull forward the automation and R&D spending that eventually lift productivity, he argued — meaning monetary policy doesn't just respond to productivity growth, it can help drive it. 
Even so, he pushed back hard against using that logic to loosen policy today, calling it crucial that the Fed place meaningful restraint on underlying inflation rather than tolerate higher prices now for a payoff later, since the size of any productivity gain remains highly uncertain and the case for easier policy takes the Fed's credibility for granted. 
Estimates of AI's eventual boost to productivity vary enormously, he noted, ranging from a tenth of a percentage point a year at the cautious end to as much as two-thirds of a point at the high end. 
Rounding out his remarks, Musalem said he doesn't see conditions that would dislodge the dollar from its position as the world's key reserve currency, pointing to the U.S.'s growth edge, innovation and rule of law even as central banks worldwide contend with a rising number of supply shocks.
Key Quotes:Monetary Policy
He favored raising rates at the recent FOMC meeting, seeing a higher probability that inflation will remain above target, and said gradual rate increases are less costly than more "abrupt" rate changes.
It is crucial that monetary policy put a meaningful restraint on underlying inflation, rather than tolerating somewhat higher inflation today to pursue productivity growth tomorrow.
Setting monetary policy easier than conditions would otherwise warrant in pursuit of higher growth would be a mistake — the size of the eventual productivity gains is highly uncertain, and the argument for easier policy takes the Fed's credibility for granted.
A central bank's most valuable contribution to long-run growth is to supply the stable prices backdrop against which firms can plan the investment and innovation that fuel economic growth.
The dual mandate is written in terms of prices and employment — it says nothing about raising the economy's long-run growth rate; fiscal and regulatory policy are the levers that reliably support productivity growth.
Inflation
Inflation is too high, and the balance of risks is tilted toward higher price pressures.
Underlying inflation is likely between 2.5% and 3%.
He wants to see monthly inflation readings below 0.2%.
The El Niño weather event might be a fresh supply shock.
Labor Market
The job market is not a source of inflation.
The labor market has stabilized, with solid payroll growth and an unemployment rate close to its longer-run value.
AI & Productivity
He is an AI and productivity optimist but recently argued the evidence does not yet justify setting monetary policy on the expectation of higher productivity growth in the future.
Monetary policy does not merely respond to productivity growth — it may also help determine it.
If less expensive financing encourages more spending on innovation and automation, then monetary policy does not merely react to productivity; it can influence it.
Estimates of AI's eventual boost to productivity growth vary widely — from roughly a tenth of a percentage point a year at the cautious end to about two-thirds of a percentage point a year at the higher end.
Growth & Economy
The U.S. economy has been resilient in recent months.
He does not see conditions that would unseat the U.S. dollar as the key reserve currency, citing the U.S. as the highest-growth, most innovative economy with effective rule of law.
Central banks have faced more supply shocks.
Fed Transparency & Accountability
He is very open-minded about Fed task forces.