📊 Friday 15:30 TRT — U.S. July Nonfarm Payrolls Report This month's report arrives in an environment where the usual "weak jobs = rate cuts = risk-on" reaction may not work. Since taking office in May,Warsh's Fed has shifted its focus from the labor market toward inflation — particularly wages in this report. Rates remain at 3.50–3.75%,with no cuts in 2026 so far,while markets are pricing zero cuts and even the possibility of a hike. The next FOMC meeting is September 16, making this report the first critical test on the road to September. Expectations: headline ~80K (previous weak 57K), unemployment 4.2%, average hourly earnings +0.3%. June's rebound is not necessarily a trend but a technical recovery from a low base — April-May were already revised down by 74K. Key point: Wages matter more than the headline this time. Wage growth clearly above +0.3% could reinforce the Fed's"stay tight, hike if necessary"stance even with weak employment → dollar positive, rate-sensitive assets negative. Scenarios: 🔥 Hot data (110K+ headline or hot wages): Dollar and Treasury yields higher; gold, silver, U.S. indices and BTC under pressure. Altcoins could fall harder due to higher beta. ⚖️ Near expectations (~80K,4.2%,+0.3%): No clear direction may emerge; revisions and the exact wage figure will matter most. Moderate hiring with stable unemployment would be relatively comfortable for equities. ❄️ Weak data (below 50K or unemployment rises to 4.3%): September rate-cut expectations return → dollar lower; gold, silver and $BTC higher. However,severe weakness could initially pressure equities on recession concerns. Beyond the headline,watch previous-month revisions, the exact wage figure, whether hiring is concentrated in one sector (leisure and hospitality) and labor-force participation. After the initial volatility,the lasting direction will likely be determined by the underlying details and wage data rather than the headline number. August 7, Fri — 15:30 TRT (UTC+3) 🔔