🔓 THE BIGGEST UNLOCK IN U.S. HISTORY JUST MET A $24.6B SHORT BOOK.
$SPCX is heading into Aug 6 with one of the most explosive supply-vs-squeeze setups on the market. ⚔️🚀
⚡ 1H SETUP — AUG 4 | T-2 TO UNLOCK
Current: $116.26
Trend: Higher lows → $109.3 → $113.1 → $115.2
Higher highs: $115.8 → $117.2 → $118.4
Uptrend from: $105.22
🎯 PRIMARY SETUP — PULLBACK LONG
💥 Entry: $114.9–$115.4
🛑 Stop: $113.0
🎯 TP1: $117.2
🎯 TP2: $118.4
🎯 TP3: $120
❌ Invalidation: 1H close below $113.0
💣 AUG 6 = SUPPLY VS SQUEEZE
SpaceX is set to unlock approximately 911.5M shares, worth around $100B at the current price.
But here's where it gets interesting…
Short sellers are already sitting on roughly $24.6B of exposure, representing about 219.3M shares and around 34% of free float.
That’s an enormous amount of short positioning heading into a major supply event.
And options are pricing roughly a 14% post-earnings move, putting the implied range around $94–$126.
This isn't simply a bullish or bearish event.
It’s a battle. ⚔️
📌 THE UNLOCK MECHANICS
🔓 Aug 6: First tranche — roughly 20–30% of restricted insider shares become sellable.
🔓 Phased unlocks: More shares are released over the following months rather than hitting the market all at once.
🔓 By December: Public float could potentially reach around 40% of total shares.
So the real story may not be “one giant dump.”
It could be a multi-month supply drip.
🐻 BEARS vs 🐂 BULLS
🐻 BEARS
• ~$24.6B short exposure
• Morningstar fair value around $62
• Stock still ~50% below ATH
• Massive new supply approaching
🐂 BULLS
• Retail reportedly net-bought ~$315M since July
• ARK bought 124,543 shares on July 27
• ~34% of float short = potential squeeze fuel
• Large options positioning around the current price
🚨 THE BIGGEST TELL?
$SPCX dropped to $105.22…
Then V-reversed to $118.38.
That’s approximately a 12.5% rebound into the unlock
$SPCX is heading into Aug 6 with one of the most explosive supply-vs-squeeze setups on the market. ⚔️🚀
⚡ 1H SETUP — AUG 4 | T-2 TO UNLOCK
Current: $116.26
Trend: Higher lows → $109.3 → $113.1 → $115.2
Higher highs: $115.8 → $117.2 → $118.4
Uptrend from: $105.22
🎯 PRIMARY SETUP — PULLBACK LONG
💥 Entry: $114.9–$115.4
🛑 Stop: $113.0
🎯 TP1: $117.2
🎯 TP2: $118.4
🎯 TP3: $120
❌ Invalidation: 1H close below $113.0
💣 AUG 6 = SUPPLY VS SQUEEZE
SpaceX is set to unlock approximately 911.5M shares, worth around $100B at the current price.
But here's where it gets interesting…
Short sellers are already sitting on roughly $24.6B of exposure, representing about 219.3M shares and around 34% of free float.
That’s an enormous amount of short positioning heading into a major supply event.
And options are pricing roughly a 14% post-earnings move, putting the implied range around $94–$126.
This isn't simply a bullish or bearish event.
It’s a battle. ⚔️
📌 THE UNLOCK MECHANICS
🔓 Aug 6: First tranche — roughly 20–30% of restricted insider shares become sellable.
🔓 Phased unlocks: More shares are released over the following months rather than hitting the market all at once.
🔓 By December: Public float could potentially reach around 40% of total shares.
So the real story may not be “one giant dump.”
It could be a multi-month supply drip.
🐻 BEARS vs 🐂 BULLS
🐻 BEARS
• ~$24.6B short exposure
• Morningstar fair value around $62
• Stock still ~50% below ATH
• Massive new supply approaching
🐂 BULLS
• Retail reportedly net-bought ~$315M since July
• ARK bought 124,543 shares on July 27
• ~34% of float short = potential squeeze fuel
• Large options positioning around the current price
🚨 THE BIGGEST TELL?
$SPCX dropped to $105.22…
Then V-reversed to $118.38.
That’s approximately a 12.5% rebound into the unlock