#TokenUnlock
$HOME is today's top gainer on Binance, +32.8% on $27.4M.
I refused to call it on 2 August at $0.00766. It is now $0.00882 — up 15.1% without me.
📊 TODAY
Price $0.00882 | range $0.00613 – $0.00993
Volume $27.4M — the heaviest on the board
That is a rejection going against me, and it is the second one this week. Publishing that is the whole point of keeping a scorecard.
📅 BUT THE REASON HAS NOT EXPIRED
I rejected it for a 194,880,000 token unlock — 4.56% of circulating supply, with Core Contributor and Early Backer tranches included.
That unlock lands on 10 August. Six days away. It has not happened yet.
🧭 SO WHICH OF US IS WRONG
Possibly me. If the unlock is absorbed without new lows, the setup was real and I was too cautious.
But a rejection is not a short. I did not bet against this. I said I would not send readers into a coin with dated supply arriving inside 30 days, and that supply is still arriving. Being early to a risk looks identical to being wrong, right up until the date.
Ask me again on 11 August. I will publish the answer either way.
Not financial advice.
$HOME is today's top gainer on Binance, +32.8% on $27.4M.
I refused to call it on 2 August at $0.00766. It is now $0.00882 — up 15.1% without me.
📊 TODAY
Price $0.00882 | range $0.00613 – $0.00993
Volume $27.4M — the heaviest on the board
That is a rejection going against me, and it is the second one this week. Publishing that is the whole point of keeping a scorecard.
📅 BUT THE REASON HAS NOT EXPIRED
I rejected it for a 194,880,000 token unlock — 4.56% of circulating supply, with Core Contributor and Early Backer tranches included.
That unlock lands on 10 August. Six days away. It has not happened yet.
🧭 SO WHICH OF US IS WRONG
Possibly me. If the unlock is absorbed without new lows, the setup was real and I was too cautious.
But a rejection is not a short. I did not bet against this. I said I would not send readers into a coin with dated supply arriving inside 30 days, and that supply is still arriving. Being early to a risk looks identical to being wrong, right up until the date.
Ask me again on 11 August. I will publish the answer either way.
Not financial advice.