🌡️ macro data — the inflation picture finally improving
July brought the best inflation data since the war started — and that was the defining positive of the month 👇
CPI June came in at 3.5% YoY — below the 3.8% forecast, the largest monthly drop since April 2020, driven by gasoline falling nearly 10% as Hormuz normalized. PPI also came in soft. Core PCE eased month on month. The Hormuz reopening is finally showing up in the data. Inflation is not fixed — but it is moving in the right direction for the first time in months. 🌡️
On the other side — GDP kept slowing, economy losing momentum. NFP came in at just +57K — well below expectations — with April and May revised down 74K combined. The labor market softened. But then a contradictory signal hit — jobless claims dropped to 187K, the lowest since September 1969. The data was sending mixed messages all month long. 🧠
✅ CPI: 3.5% — below forecast, first real cooling since war
✅ Core PCE: easing MoM — pipeline inflation cooling
✅ PPI: below expectations — producer prices normalizing
📉 GDP: slowing — economy losing momentum
📉 NFP: +57K — well below 110K expected
😳 Jobless claims: 187K — lowest since September 1969
😬 Macro contradiction: weak growth + tight labor + easing inflation

#PCE #NFP #GDP #dyor