Bitcoin halving cycles: my observations and what I expect next
After studying Bitcoin for years, one thing stands out to me: every cycle looks different on the surface, but the underlying pattern remains surprisingly consistent.
Bitcoin was launched in 2009 with a block reward of 50 BTC. Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, that reward is cut in half. The halvings happened in 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024, reducing rewards from 50 → 25 → 12.5 → 6.25 → 3.125 BTC. The next halving is expected around 2028, when rewards will fall to 1.5625 BTC.
What I Notice About Every Cycle
2012 Cycle
Bitcoin was still unknown. The first halving created a major supply shock and BTC went from around $12 to over $1,000 within the following year.
2016 Cycle
Institutional interest was still small, but adoption was growing. After the halving, Bitcoin eventually climbed to nearly $20,000 in 2017.
2020 Cycle
This cycle brought institutions, public companies, and global attention. Following the halving, Bitcoin reached new highs near $69,000 in 2021.
2024 Cycle
For the first time, Bitcoin entered a halving cycle with spot ETFs, stronger institutional demand, and much greater global recognition. The reward dropped to 3.125 BTC, making new supply even scarcer.
My Biggest Observation
Every halving creates fewer new bitcoins entering the market.
Demand doesn't need to explode overnight. It only needs to stay steady while supply growth keeps shrinking.
The interesting part is that each cycle delivers lower percentage returns than the previous one. Bitcoin is becoming a larger and more mature asset. I believe the era of 100x moves is largely behind us, but the era of trillion-dollar adoption is just beginning.
What I Expect Next
My view is that the current cycle is not only a halving cycle. It is also the first true institutional cycle.
Previous bull runs were mainly driven by retail investors. This time we have ETFs, corporate treasuries, sovereign interest, and long-term holders absorbing supply.
Because of this, I think Bitcoin's next major move could be less explosive but more sustainable.
Looking Toward 2028
The next halving is expected around April 2028. Historically, Bitcoin has made new all-time highs after every halving cycle, although there is never a guarantee that history repeats exactly.
My personal expectation is:
2026-2027 could be a period of consolidation and accumulation.
The 2028 halving could become the catalyst for the next major supply shock.
If adoption continues growing, the post-2028 cycle may be the first cycle where Bitcoin is viewed globally as a strategic reserve asset rather than just a speculative investment.
Final Thought/ Summary
The biggest lesson from every Bitcoin cycle is simple:
People focus on price. Bitcoin focuses on supply.
News changes every day.
Narratives change every year.
But the halving keeps arriving every four years.
So far, every cycle has rewarded those who understood scarcity before the crowd did.
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