📊 $BTC — Elliott Wave Update 07/29

Price broke below the projected 62,979 low as expected, dipping further to 62,669.40 - then reversed hard, blowing straight through the 63,700-64,000 watch zone instead of rejecting there, and rallied to a high of 64,105.57. Currently retesting that zone, last close 64,050.52.

Revised wave count (wave 3 extended further than expected):
1️⃣ 65,643.3 → 64,328.88 (-1,314)
2️⃣ 64,328.88 → 65,011.57 (+683)
3️⃣ 65,011.57 → 62,669.40 (-2,342, extended — low revised)
4️⃣ 62,669.40 → current (64,105.57 / 64,050.52), ~61% retrace of wave 3 — deep, approaching a critical level

⚠️ Key level: 64,328.88 (wave 1 low). This is the line in the sand for the entire bearish count:
- If wave 4 stalls below this level → count stays valid, wave 5️⃣ lower remains on the table.
- If price breaks above 64,328.88 → violates the "wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1" rule → the bearish structure is invalidated, and a larger reversal scenario needs to be considered.

Price has been chopping sideways in the 63,450-64,105 range for ~14h, right up against the decision zone — no clear rejection candle yet.

Watch plan:
- If rejected below 64,328.88 → bearish continuation toward 62,669.40 and possibly lower.
- If price breaks and holds above 64,328.88 with strong momentum → bearish scenario is off the table, structure needs to be re-read to the upside.

Personal technical view — not financial advice, always manage your own risk.

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