FED July 2026 Meeting: Expectations, Potential Outcomes, and Market Impact According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 65.3%, making it the base-case scenario. However, markets have turned increasingly hawkish on September, with the probability of a rate hike rising to 82%. The June dot plot showed the same shift, with 9 of 18 participants expecting at least one rate hike before the end of 2026, compared with none three months earlier. The key takeaway: a July surprise is unlikely, but the post-meeting rhetoric will be critical. Scenario 1 – Dovish: Rates remain unchanged. Warsh points to cooler-than-expected June CPI and PPI data and stresses that future decisions will remain data-dependent. Scenario 2 – Hawkish: Rates remain unchanged, but Warsh highlights higher energy prices, Middle East tensions, and persistent inflation, leaving the door open for a September rate hike. Markets are currently leaning toward the second scenario, making the press conference the main source of volatility. Gold (XAU/USD) Dovish guidance + lower Treasury yields → Bullish for gold. Hawkish guidance + stronger September hike expectations → Higher risk of a short-term correction, especially if the DXY strengthens. Geopolitical tensions and higher energy prices remain an additional source of support for gold. Cryptocurrency Market ( $BTC , $ETH & Altcoins) Dovish signal + weaker DXY → Improved risk appetite and potential upside for BTC and large-cap altcoins. Hawkish signal + stronger September hike expectations → Greater selling pressure and increased risk of leveraged liquidations. Crypto is expected to react more aggressively than gold, with sharp price swings possible during the first one to two hours after the announcement due to temporary liquidity gaps.