Bybit, the world’s second‑largest crypto exchange by trading volume, has published a wide‑ranging “2026 Crypto Outlook” that argues the old bitcoin playbook—anchored to four‑year halving cycles—is losing its grip. Instead, the report says macro policy, derivatives markets and accelerating tokenization are reshaping crypto’s risk and return profile heading into 2026. Big picture: cycles still matter, but less Bybit’s researchers find that historical halving‑driven boom‑and‑bust patterns “remain relevant,” yet their dominance is waning. Institutional flows, central‑bank policy and modern market structure now exert a comparable or greater influence on price formation. In practice, that means traders can no longer treat halvings as a mechanical timing tool: reading the Fed, equity indices and options books is now as crucial as on‑chain supply metrics. Macro backdrop could re‑link bitcoin with equities The report notes market pricing is tilting toward further U.S. monetary easing—an environment that typically supports risk assets. Bitcoin has recently lagged U.S. equities, but Bybit highlights the potential for a renewed positive correlation with major equity indices if policy stays accommodative and liquidity conditions remain friendly. That mirrors how investors historically rotate into growth and high‑beta trades when rate‑cut expectations firm. Derivatives: what options are pricing Using options‑implied probabilities and volatility data, Bybit calculates a 10.3% implied market probability that bitcoin trades at $150,000 by the end of 2026. The team stresses this is “market pricing rather than a forecast.” They also argue options desks may be conservatively positioned relative to a potentially bullish macro and regulatory backdrop—leaving room for upside should policy, ETF inflows, or institutional mandates surprise to the upside, similar to dynamics after spot‑BTC ETF approvals in early 2024. Policy and event risks to watch The report tempers its constructive scenario with event‑driven risks: - A mid‑January MSCI decision on a potential index exclusion for Strategy could dent sentiment, especially for equity‑linked crypto proxies. - Possible Bank of Japan tightening later in 2026 could trigger cross‑asset volatility as carry trades unwind, a dynamic that historically spills over into bitcoin and major altcoins. Structural themes: tokenization, stablecoins and infrastructure Beyond cyclical drivers, Bybit flags structural forces likely to define 2026: - Real‑world asset tokenization is a “key structural theme,” building on what the report calls expanded stablecoin adoption by regulated institutions in 2025. Tokenized treasuries and on‑chain money‑market products may become core components of the next DeFi cycle. - Market infrastructure upgrades are advancing in response to emerging technological risks. The report highlights quantum computing as a theoretical but meaningful catalyst for improved cryptography, custody standards and protocol resilience—especially for chains that will anchor tokenized assets and institutional flows. Bottom line Bybit’s “2026 Crypto Outlook” concludes that cycles, sentiment and volatility will continue to define crypto—but their interactions are evolving. Greater institutional participation, active regulatory engagement and macro support give digital assets more room to diverge from historical patterns, even as episodic shocks and uncertainty persist. The full Bybit x Block Scholes report, which includes the underlying data and methodology, is available for download for readers who want the deep dive. Key takeaways - Halving cycles still matter, but are less dominant than before. - Fed easing expectations could re‑link BTC with equities. - Options markets price a 10.3% chance of BTC at $150k by end‑2026 (market pricing, not a forecast). - Watch the mid‑January MSCI decision and potential BOJ tightening for volatility triggers. - Tokenization and stablecoin adoption by regulated institutions are major structural themes; infrastructure and cryptography upgrades are underway. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news